War in the Middle East: Why Africans Must Leave Now
By Dennis Obel | Afrofeast Senior Editor
I am writing this with a heavy heart but a clear mind. If you are an African living in the Gulf or the wider Middle East, or if you have family there, listen closely: It is time to come home.
The growing tensions and the War in the Middle East compel us to take action.
We are standing on the edge of a cliff. The War in the Middle East is no longer a “possibility”—it is unfolding right before our eyes, and I am almost 99 percent certain America and Israel will attack Iran. The recent US attack on Venezuela in early January was not an isolated event; it was the opening move in a global chess game that is about to explode in Iran.
As we observe the War in the Middle East, it is evident that the stakes are high.
As an African analyst for the Afrofeast blog, I believe we need to look past the Western news headlines and understand what is really happening. This war will devastate our economies and endanger millions of our brothers and sisters working abroad. Here is why the world is breaking apart and what it means for Africa.
The ramifications of the War in the Middle East must not be underestimated.
The Venezuela-Iran Connection: It’s About Oil and Survival
Many people missed the connection, but I strongly believe the war between America/Israel and Iran was decided late last year. Did you notice how the US military moved against Venezuela just weeks ago? That wasn’t an accident.
The United States is fighting for its economic survival. For decades, the American economy relied on the “Petrodollar”—an arrangement from the 1970s where Saudi Arabia agreed to sell oil only in US dollars. That deal has expired and was not renewed. Saudi Arabia is now trading in other currencies, and the US dollar is collapsing.
To save itself, America needs to control the global oil tap. By attacking Venezuela (a huge oil producer) and now targeting Iran (another massive producer), the US is trying to manipulate oil output and prices and force the world back into its economic grip.
Israel on the other hand, fearing for its long-term survival in a region surrounded by Muslim nations, has convinced America that Iran must be broken now, or never. After Trump, it is most likely that a Democratic Party President will return to the White House, and their policies towards Iran has always been softer.
The Trap for Iran and the “King’s Son”
The US and Israel know they cannot fight a long ground war against Iran. Iran is not Iraq; it has a massive military, difficult terrain, and strong backing from China and Russia. You all saw how Iran successfully defended itself against Israeli invasion last year. A full-scale invasion would be suicide for the American economy and stability of the region. American allies including Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE would not support such protracted war. Many of them run multi-billion dollar businesses and fear repercussions including the demise of their kingdoms.
Instead, I foresee a different, more cunning strategy. Trump will likely try to avoid a messy, all-out invasion. My analysis suggests they will attempt to “cut off the head of the snake” by orchestrating the abduction or removal of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei and high officials.
Alternatively they will try to engineer an internal revolt and pressurise the most senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders to defect and work with them.
Their goal? To force a quick deal (Trump is obsessed with such deals as “peace maker”). If it succeeds, they will install a friendly puppet regime. Watch closely for the name Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah (King) of Iran.
There is already chatter in political circles that he is being groomed to take over. They want to turn Iran back into a Western ally, just like it was before 1979.
But this is a dangerous gamble. Iran, which has been preparing since the collapse of the Shah, will fight tooth and nail. Russia and China know that if Iran falls, China is next. They will not sit idly by. This conflict could easily spiral into a global war that drags in the entire region.
The War in the Middle East could have serious implications for global security.
Why Africans and Black People in the Middle East Must Leave Immediately
Many lives will be impacted if the War in the Middle East escalates further and for Africa in particular.
This brings us to the most urgent point of this article: the safety of our people.
There are millions of Africans and black people working in the Middle East—in the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Jordan. You are the backbone of their economies, working in construction, domestic homes, and service industries. But when the missiles start flying, you will be the most vulnerable.
Should the War in the Middle East erupt fully, many will find themselves in danger.
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If War in the Middle East breaks out fully:
- Airspace will close: We have already seen flight cancellations. You could be trapped with no way out.
- Cities will be targets: Iranian missiles can reach major cities in the Gulf. Energy plants and oil refineries where many migrants work will be primary targets.
- No priority for evacuation: When chaos hits, Western nations will evacuate their citizens first. Africans and black people will be left behind, just as we saw in Ukraine and Libya.
Do not wait for your government to send a plane. Leave now while you can.
The Economic Tsunami Hitting Africa
The War in the Middle East challenges us to rethink our dependencies.
Even if you are safe at home in Lagos, Nairobi, Accra, or Johannesburg, Kampala, this war will hit your pocket hard. Africa is dangerously exposed.
1. The Cost of Living Will Skyrocket
With each development in the War in the Middle East, the stakes rise significantly.
We rely heavily on cheap oil from the Middle East. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices will double overnight. Transport costs will rise, which means the price of food, matatu fares, and electricity will soar. We do not have the economic reserves to cushion this blow.
2. The Debt Trap Deepens
As the US dollar fluctuates wildly due to the war, African currencies will suffer. Most of our national debts are denominated by the World Bank in dollars. If our shillings, nairas, and cedis lose value, our debt repayments will become impossible to manage. We could see a wave of national defaults.
3. Trade Routes Blocked
The economic impacts of the War in the Middle East will ripple across continents.
Much of Africa’s trade passes through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea. We have already seen attacks on ships there. A full War in the Middle East will shut down these routes, delaying medicines, machinery, and essential goods from reaching our ports.
Conclusion: Africa Must Wake Up
The next target after Iran is China. America is desperate to stop China’s rise to save itself from total collapse. We are witnessing the violent death throes of the old unipolar world order that came into being after the second World War.
For Africa, this is a wake-up call. We cannot continue to rely on the Middle East for oil or the West for economic stability. We need to build our own refineries, trade with each other, and protect our own citizens. Africa has massive oil and gas reserves from Namibia to Uganda to Nigeria and Algeria. Why don’t we process those within the continent?
But for today, the message is simple. If you are in the danger zone, come home. The storm is not coming; it is already here. I am highly certain America and Israel are going to attack Iran. Don’t believe Donald Trump will make a decision after the “armada” arrives. The decisions were made when the Israeli PM last visited the USA.
And don’t believe the US wants to save the Iranian people. It is all about survival for both USA and Israel.
As the War in the Middle East unfolds, our response will define our future.
Share this article to warn your family and friends abroad. The time to act is now.
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